ECOVIEWS
WEATHER PREDICTIONS ARE BETTER THAN EVER
Whit Gibbons
Earlier this summer (it is still summer until autumn officially begins on September 22), I tried to go a full day without mentioning that the weather was too hot or too humid. I worked hard not to say an unkind remark about the heat dome. I was unsuccessful. Which means I joined millions of others who cannot go a day without mentioning the weather, no matter what the season. So . . . some unharnessed thoughts about the weather should be acceptable for anyone who has ever considered the topic, which means everyone, even those few who keep their mouths shut about it.
Some years ago the focus was not only on how extreme and unexpected the weather was but also on how bad forecasts in newspapers and on TV were at predicting it. Today’s climatologists, scientists who record and analyze atmospheric patterns on a global scale, have taken the fun out of complaining. Fairly accurate predictions of regional weather are almost the norm, sometimes days in advance. Of course, they keep their caveats of “possible thunderstorms” or “rain likely” to hedge their bets. Though science has achieved some success with short-term forecasting, in most parts of the world long-term weather predictions are still notorious for being unpredictable, although they probably beat the Farmer’s Almanac for accuracy. My cousin Steve, who is a meteorologist, asserts that “nowcasting” is still the only consistently reliable weather report, especially for rain or snow. He also notes that meteorological studies have documented that the most accurate weather forecast is to predict that tomorrow’s weather will be like today’s. You will be right more often than not.
Climatologists and meteorologists are indisputably better these days at predicting the weather. So why are their predictions about climate change such a hot button issue? Why do some people trust warnings from them about global warming whereas others, who accept the accuracy of daily weather reports, brush the climate-change idea aside as a conspiracy? To make a complex issue even more polarizing, people who accept that Earth is getting warmer do not always agree on whether it is a human-caused problem with a human solution. But whatever the true situation with climate change, we are still going to be stuck with weather. As Mark Twain said, “Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.” The same will be true regardless of whether regional climates are changing.
Many people (like me) enjoy talking about weather whereas others (not like me) don’t. Some people think talking about the weather is inane and boring. I do not agree. But in the spirit of fairness, here are some comments from people whose opinions differ from mine. Oscar Wilde asserted: “Conversation about the weather is the last refuge of the unimaginative.” How hurtful, Oscar. And Kin Hubbard, an Indiana humorist said, “Don’t knock the weather. If it didn’t change once in a while, 9 out of 10 people couldn’t start a conversation.” Even less helpful to those of us who find weather fascinating are the insensitive words of the British scholar Thomas Fuller: “Change of weather is the discourse of fools.” Hey, back off, some of us like weather talk, even if it’s just a healthy way to complain (and maybe start a conversation).
Wild animals can foretell changing seasons, but predicting the weather, even a day in advance, is one of humankind’s most obvious advantages over all other animals. Any wild animals that based their survival on the misguided belief that they were able to predict the weather eventually left no descendants. That kind of thinking does not exist in the animal kingdom—except for humans.
Despite the likes of Oscar Wilde and Thomas Fuller, in my opinion the weather itself is a worthy topic of conversation. And though I may not be the first to say “finally, a break!” on that first cool day of autumn, I will be quite happy to hear it.
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